Mauritius is on Class 3 Warning and Giovanna is said to be one of these BIG FAT naughty cyclones! But local news says it might curve south while NASA says otherwise...who to trust ? Click to redirect to wunderground.com It has been ages since we had one big fat naughty cyclone and after the island passed on Class 3 yesterday in the afternoon, Mauritius has been feeding on news updates about the climatic situation from our local services while I, as habit would have it, prefer international reports which fill my curiosity better! Indeed, wunderground.com and Science Codex both predict Giovanna to jump directly towards central Madagascar. The latter writes "NASA sees Giovanna reach cyclone strength, threaten Madagascar" with an explanatory paragraph about it's predicted weakening while crashing through the country-island and it's future re-development in the Mozambique Channel! To be noted that NASA unveiled its forecast as early as possible; on February 10th - that is at the point of cyclone formation. Too early to my taste... Synoptic Chart from metservice.intnet.mu On the other hand, Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) talks about Giovanna with a day-to-day basis (unlike NASA which can presumably forecast up to 5 days ahead!) and says the cyclone's deceleration and almost-stationary position are signs of a future change of trajectory - probably to the South, towards Mauritius and Reunion - as did numerous other cyclonic systems in the past. Indeed, in this morning's issue of WEEKEND newspaper, MMS goes even further in exemplifying the 'super typhoon' with Holanda and Géralda (Feb 1994) and Gamède! So, who to believe ? Local services' experience or NASA's advanced technology ? In any case, fact remains that their predictions are diametrically opposed and until now, we are still under threat of major cyclonic conditions and it is likely to worsen in the late afternoon ! P.S. Should this slow movement be unchanged, school could be closed tomorrow due to the Class 3 warning (which is likely to be maintained should the above case stand). What do you hope for? Rain? Wind? No school? Or let's face it, just a 'badass' cyclone!? Let me know what you want by leaving comments! Sine Cera
3 Comments
Adrien
2/12/2012 09:08:28 am
Great article friends.....coming to the cyclone.....it was the funniest ever.....and MMS is just no really good satellite image interpreters....so understand them.....hoping to experience a true cyclone soon;....;)
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